Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 09 2024 06:01:45

ACUS01 KWNS 090601
SWODY1
SPC AC 090600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

....SUMMARY...
As Hurricane Milton moves across the Florida Peninsula today,
several tornadoes will be likely across parts of the central and
southern Florida Peninsula, into the Florida Keys.

....Florida Peninsula/Florida Keys...
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Hurricane Milton to
continue moving toward the western coast of the Florida Peninsula
today. As the hurricane approaches this morning, scattered
thunderstorms within the outer bands will move across the southern
and central Florida Peninsula. Later in the afternoon, a second band
of convection is forecast to move across the southern and central
Florida Peninsula. A boundary associated with a relatively tight
thermal gradient will be located from south of Tampa Bay extending
east-northeastward to near Orlando. South of the boundary, afternoon
RAP forecast soundings in and west of the Lake Okeechobee area
suggest MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/Kg range. In
addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the same area is
forecast to be in the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range, with long and looping
hodographs. This will favor supercell development with a potential
for tornadoes. The HRRR suggests that cells within the second band
will remain semi-discrete. All of this points to the possibility for
a relatively confined tornado cluster this afternoon in the area to
the west and north of Lake Okeechobee. A strong tornado or two could
occur during the mid to late afternoon, when instability and shear
will be locally maximized. The tornado threat is expected to persist
through the late afternoon and into the evening as the band moves to
the eastern coast of Florida.

...Broyles/Squitieri.. 10/09/2024

$$

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