Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Oct 09 2024 00:45:13 ACUS01 KWNS 090045 SWODY1 SPC AC 090043 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ....SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, is expected to develop from the Florida Keys this evening northeastward across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula late tonight. ....Florida Keys/ Western and Southern Florida Peninsula... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Hurricane Milton to continue to move northeastward across the southern Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the track of Milton, visible satellite imagery shows cold cloud tops associated with a large area of convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms within this area will move toward south Florida this evening into tonight. The latest RAP has moderate instability analyzed from the Florida Keys into far south Florida, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Key West has 0-6 km shear of 30 to 35 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 200 ms/s2. RAP forecast soundings gradually increase low-level shear as Hurricane Milton approaches tonight, which should result in an isolated tornado threat across the Florida Keys and along the southwest Florida Peninsula coast. As Hurricane Milton moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight, an isolated tornado threat is also expected to develop across parts of south Florida, as instability and low-level shear increase. The threat over much of south Florida is expected to be concentrated after 09Z. ...Broyles.. 10/09/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .