Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 08 2024 12:32:38

ACUS01 KWNS 081232
SWODY1
SPC AC 081230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...

....SUMMARY...
An isolated tornado threat associated with Hurricane Milton may
develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of
the central/southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys.

....Florida...
Ongoing thunderstorm activity this morning over south FL and
vicinity along/near a weak baroclinic zone should generally remain
sub-severe through the day, with modest low/mid-level flow limiting
deep-layer shear. The latest NHC forecast shows Hurricane Milton
moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early
Wednesday morning. Milton's wind field is also forecast to expand
through the period, with enhanced low-level southerlies expected to
gradually overspread parts of the Keys and south FL late tonight
(mainly after 06Z). A corresponding slow increase in low-level shear
is anticipated in this time frame, which should support some
potential for updraft rotation and isolated tornado/waterspout
threat with any cells in outer rain bands on the eastern periphery
of Milton's center. Still, there is a fair amount of guidance which
shows that any outer rain bands that do manage to form late tonight
into early Wednesday morning may tend to remain offshore from the
Keys and southwest FL Coast. Even with this uncertainty, some threat
for a couple of brief tornadoes may exist across these areas, mainly
in the 06-12Z time frame. The threat for a few tornadoes is expected
to increase into the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 12Z/8 AM EDT
Wednesday morning) across a greater portion of central/south FL and
the Keys as Milton approaches the FL Gulf Coast.

...Gleason/Jewell.. 10/08/2024

$$

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