Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Oct 08 2024 06:50:06 ACUS03 KWNS 080650 SWODY3 SPC AC 080649 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ....SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will remain possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Thursday. ....Synopsis... A cyclone is forecast to begin the period over the upper St. Lawrence Valley, with the cyclonic flow throughout the base of this system extending across much of the eastern CONUS. Tropical Cyclone Milton will be within the far southern periphery of this cyclonic flow. Expectation is that a shortwave trough will move within the base of the upper low across New England while Milton also ejects quickly northeastward. This evolution will take the upper troughing off the East Coast, although some troughing may linger across the Southeast. Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the eastern CONUS, precluding thunderstorm development. The only exception is across the FL Peninsula in the vicinity of Milton. Farther west, the overall upper pattern is expected to deamplify/trend more zonal as upper ridging initially extending from the Southwest through the Upper Midwest dampens in response to a shortwave trough moving through the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Within this ridging, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will likely drift southward from the central Plains into OK. A few lightning flashes are possible with the high-based convection associated with this low-amplitude shortwave and related cold mid-level temperatures across OK, but coverage is expected to be less than 10%. ....FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton... Current forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Milton as a hurricane over the east-central FL Coast early Thursday morning before the system then continues east-northeastward into the western Atlantic while weakening. Given the expected early morning position, wind fields will likely have veered across the peninsula. Even so ample speed shear will exist, with enough low-level curvature still in place to support rotation and a low-probability tornado risk within any deeper, more persistent convection. ...Mosier.. 10/08/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .