Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 08 2024 04:49:03

ACUS01 KWNS 080449
SWODY1
SPC AC 080447

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE KEYS...

....SUMMARY...
An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, may
develop tonight into Wednesday morning across the central and
southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys.

....Synopsis...
An upper low will drift very slowly southeastward across eastern
Canada, while the broad/surrounding cyclonic flow field resides
across the northeastern quarter of the U.S. through the period.
Farther to the west into the Plains and Intermountain region,
low-amplitude upper ridging will prevail.  Meanwhile however, the
main weather feature remains Hurricane Milton, which is forecast to
shift northeastward across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through
the period.

....Portions of Florida and the Keys...
Though Milton will remain over the open Gulf through the period,
outer banding may begin to affect the Florida Peninsula and Keys as
early as late tonight.  Given that the deep-layer wind field will be
increasing in response to the approach of the hurricane, low-level
shear will become increasingly conducive for updraft
rotation/tornado potential through the latter half of the period.
Presuming that cells within Milton's outer banding reach Florida,
local risk for brief tornadoes could evolve, within
sustained/rotating convective elements.  As such, will maintain
level 1/MRGL risk across this area -- reflecting low tornado
probability.  Depending upon any adjustments to the track/intensity
of Milton with time, corresponding adjustments to the tornado
forecast may be required.  For additional information regarding
Milton, please refer to the latest forecasts/updates from the
National Hurricane Center.

...Goss/Squitieri.. 10/08/2024

$$

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