Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Oct 06 2024 12:46:47 ACUS01 KWNS 061246 SWODY1 SPC AC 061245 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA...AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening from parts of eastern Ohio into western New York/Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and western Maryland. Damaging winds and hail should be the main threats. ....Upper Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians... A vigorous upper trough over Ontario and the Great Lakes will continue advancing eastward across parts of Quebec and the Northeast today. A related surface low over northern Ontario this morning will slowly occlude through the day, while a cold front extending across the upper Great Lakes and Midwest advances southeastward over the OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic by this evening. A narrow corridor of modest low-level moisture will return northward ahead of this cold front, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s to perhaps low 60s. Modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overspreading the warm sector through the day, in tandem with diurnal heating, should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon. A belt of enhanced (50-60 kt) mid-level flow attendant to the upper trough will move over parts of the upper OH Valley, lower Great Lakes, and western Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. This strong flow aloft will contribute to substantial deep-layer shear (around 35-50 kt) and organized severe convection. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along the cold front in eastern OH/western NY and northwest PA around 20-22Z. This initial development may be supercellular given the strong deep-layer shear, with an associated threat for severe hail given favorable lapse rates aloft. A brief tornado or two may also occur. But, a fairly quick transition to a line is anticipated given the linear forcing of the cold front. As this occurs, the threat for scattered damaging winds should quickly increase as convection moves east-southeastward from eastern OH across western NY/PA and into WV/western MD. Given the fairly narrow warm sector, this activity should weaken by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating, and as it encounters a much less unstable airmass in the central Appalachians. ...Gleason/Dean.. 10/06/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .