Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Oct 06 2024 05:27:15 ACUS01 KWNS 060527 SWODY1 SPC AC 060525 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN OHIO...AND THE WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Ohio, western New York/western Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and the western Maryland Panhandle. ....Synopsis... Mid-level short-wave troughing is forecast to shift east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and adjacent Ontario into the Northeast today and tonight. This trough will be accompanied by a surface cold front, advancing eastward/southeastward across these same areas through the period. Elsewhere, low-amplitude ridging will prevail across the central and western U.S. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Milton should continue to evolve/gradually strengthen across the western Gulf of Mexico through the period. ....Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes/central Appalachians... Daytime heating ahead of an advancing cold front, combined with a ribbon of low 60s dewpoints along the front extending from Lake Ontario southwestward, will result in modest afternoon destabilization (500 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected). As the front advances ahead of the associated upper trough, the thermodynamic environment should prove sufficient -- in tandem with frontal forcing -- for thunderstorm development to occur. Moderately strong (50 to 60 kt) mid-level westerlies are forecast to overspread the region through the day. Given low-level southwesterlies expected ahead of the front, this veering/increasing flow with height will be sufficient to support organized/rotating storms. Initial cellular convection may thus become supercellular locally, with a tornado possible along with risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts. With time, storms should grow upscale into a more linear frontal band, with damaging winds becoming the more prevalent risk through late afternoon/early evening. Later in the evening, as the front crosses the higher terrain, convective intensity -- and associated severe potential -- should diminish, given weaker instability expected east of the mountains. ...Goss/Karstens.. 10/06/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .