Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Oct 05 2024 16:26:39 ACUS01 KWNS 051626 SWODY1 SPC AC 051624 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ....SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ....Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces will continue moving east today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong surface low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario in associated with the upper low, as a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely prevent thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent with the approach of the upper trough overspreads northern WI/MI. Thunderstorm development should occur this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, with storms generally tending to remain slightly elevated. MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support a few stronger/organized updrafts. The risk for large hail will exist initially with more discrete development given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as storms move east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong/locally damaging winds may exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. ...Bunting/Supinie.. 10/05/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .