Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Oct 05 2024 12:42:36

ACUS01 KWNS 051242
SWODY1
SPC AC 051240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated
gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan
this evening and overnight.

....Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes...
A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian
Prairie provinces this morning will move quickly eastward today,
reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday
morning. At the surface, a strong low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba
will develop eastward into northwest Ontario through the period in
tandem with the upper trough. A trailing cold front will sweep
quickly eastward today over the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture
return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with
northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the
50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated
this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper
Midwest. An associated cap will likely hinder thunderstorm
development until this evening, when stronger ascent and mid-level
height falls preceding the upper trough begin to overspread northern
WI/MI.

As convective initiation occurs this evening along/near the cold
front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, thunderstorms will probably
tend to remain slightly elevated. Even so, adequate MUCAPE and
strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support robust updrafts
and thunderstorm organization. Initially more discrete convection
may pose a threat for large hail given the presence of steepened
mid-level lapse rates and ample deep-layer shear. A more linear mode
should quickly develop as this activity races east-northeastward
across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency
for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of
daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong to damaging winds may
still exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow
accompanying the upper trough. Based on latest guidance trends, have
expanded the Marginal Risk for wind eastward to include more of
northern MI with this update. There is still a fair amount of
uncertainty regarding thunderstorm coverage and intensity this
evening across northern WI and the U.P. of MI, and no changes have
been made to the Slight Risk across these areas.

...Gleason/Dean.. 10/05/2024

$$

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