Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 04 2024 19:14:59

ACUS01 KWNS 041914
SWODY1
SPC AC 041913

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

Little was changed to the existing outlook for the 20Z outlook
except to remove the 10% general thunderstorm area from IL as the
activity has diminished.

Otherwise, general storms will remain possible from the TX Coast
into much of the Southeast, south of the Great Lakes high and within
the relatively moist easterly flow regime.

...Jewell.. 10/04/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024/

....Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes will
continue to quickly move east through the afternoon and a lingering
thunderstorm cluster over west-central IL late this morning will
gradually diminish as this disturbance becomes displaced.

Farther south, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be
possible from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Gulf
Coast/Southeast.  Weak flow will limit storm intensity in these
regions.  A vigorous shortwave trough will move across the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies/Plains through tonight.  While
large-scale forcing and mid-level flow associated with the upper
trough passage will be strong, thunderstorm coverage is expected to
remain sparse due to a rather dry airmass present across these
areas.

$$

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