Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Oct 04 2024 07:16:54 ACUS03 KWNS 040716 SWODY3 SPC AC 040716 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the middle and upper Ohio Valley as well across the Gulf Coast Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated. ....Middle/Upper OH Valley... A maturing mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over northwest Ontario early Sunday morning. A pair of fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave troughs will move through the base of this cyclone during the period, helping induce a more negative tilt while also pulling the cyclone eastward. Primary surface low associated with this system will remain occluded over Ontario throughout the period. However, a secondary triple-point low will likely be over central Ontario early Sunday, with its associated cold front extending southwestward through the Mid MS Valley. This low is forecast to push eastward across eastern Ontario during the day, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated ahead of this front across the middle/upper OH Valley, although the best moisture will be confined to a narrow axis just ahead of the front. This buoyancy, coupled with increasing large-scale forcing for ascent, could contribute to enough buoyancy for thunderstorm development along and just ahead of the front. However, the quality of this moisture return and associated buoyancy remain uncertain, with the veered low-level flow ahead of the front and narrow character of the warm sector also limiting factors. Low predictability within this scenario merits precluding introducing low severe probabilities with this outlook. ....Gulf Coast into the Coastal GA and FL Peninsula... Easterly/northeasterly low-level flow will persist for another day across the northern Gulf of Mexico, as a broad area of low pressure remains in place. Showers and thunderstorms are possible within the moist airmass, but weak shear should keep storm severity low. ...Mosier.. 10/04/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .