Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Oct 04 2024 04:35:23 ACUS01 KWNS 040435 SWODY1 SPC AC 040433 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ....Discussion... Seasonably high moisture content will generally remain confined to where the low-level easterlies prevail, across the southwestern Atlantic through the Gulf Basin during this period. The boundary layer does remain relatively moist across much of the southeastern U.S., but this region, and most areas east of the Mississippi Valley, are forecast to remain under the influence of surface high pressure. Still, weak to modest destabilization and orographic forcing with daytime heating may contribute to some thunderstorm development today across parts of the upper Tennessee Valley and Cumberland Plateau into the Blue Ridge. Otherwise, higher thunderstorm probabilities likely will remain focused across southern portions of the Florida Peninsula and immediate northwestern through north central Gulf coastal areas. An area of thunderstorm development, largely aided by ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may be ongoing at 12Z this morning across parts of southeastern Iowa and adjacent northeastern Missouri/west central Illinois. But this appears likely to gradually diminish while slowly spreading southeastward across west central/central Illinois through mid to late morning. The stronger westerlies remain confined to the northern mid-latitudes, with one rather vigorous embedded short wave trough forecast to rapidly accelerate inland of the Pacific Northwest coast and across the northern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Models indicate that this will be accompanied by cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian Rockies, and strong pre- and post-frontal lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields across the northern U.S. Rockies into Great Plains. Despite rather dry initial conditions, strong mid/upper forcing for ascent may contribute to at least weak high-based convection, near or above/to the cool side of the surging cold front. While it is possible that this could coincide with strong/gusty surface conditions, forecast soundings suggest minimal potential for these gusts to be related to moist convective processes, and it still appears unlikely that this convection will be accompanied by much, if any, lightning. ...Kerr/Squitieri.. 10/04/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .