Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 04 2024 00:48:31

FOUS30 KWBC 040047
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
847 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024

Day 1
Valid 01Z Fri Oct 04 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira

Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024 - 12Z Sat Oct 05 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

The broad cyclonic regime across the Gulf will continue through the
end of the week with a westward expansion of elevated PWATs into
portions of coastal TX. Recent trends are for convective
development to remain mostly offshore within the best the zone of
greatest theta-E, although some inferences of the convective
potential are forecast to wander ashore of Deep South TX between
CRP and BRO. Best chance for totals >2" are focused along the
immediate coast from Kenedy to Cameron counties with South Padre
and Brownsville the most common focal points for a heavier rain
footprint. The consensus is still for the heaviest rain to remain
offshore, but some CAMs try to usher in a few pockets of heavier
precip capable of low-end prob flash flooding concerns. This shows
up well with the 3-hr FFG exceedance probability on the 12z HREF,
but again very low-end threat considering the 5-15% probs
positioned over the above area. Probabilities for late in the
period are heavily skewed thanks to one CAM member going well above
consensus in heavy rain placement, so currently not entertaining
that idea as of now unless more guidance tags along. In any case,
the threat for flash flooding remains non-zero, but below the MRGL
risk threshold. The nil ERO forecast for the CONUS continues.

Kleebauer

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 05 2024 - 12Z Sun Oct 06 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-rWsMFCKuvPa-pB5MT_bsd-mycqQevshV0kWb1oigixo=
bJvM0jN9kJQPIPezznfzodca30eo74EiVaD1j3PwQPAaMg4$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-rWsMFCKuvPa-pB5MT_bsd-mycqQevshV0kWb1oigixo=
bJvM0jN9kJQPIPezznfzodca30eo74EiVaD1j3PwqnIBvrw$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-rWsMFCKuvPa-pB5MT_bsd-mycqQevshV0kWb1oigixo=
bJvM0jN9kJQPIPezznfzodca30eo74EiVaD1j3PwazaDk7E$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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