Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 03 2024 19:38:18

ACUS01 KWNS 031938
SWODY1
SPC AC 031936

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. However, a few strong storms
are expected over parts of Iowa tonight.

....20Z Update...
Scattered storms persist across the central FL Peninsula within a
moist easterly flow regime south of the upper ridge. Moderate
instability may support locally strong gusts within the diurnal and
weakly sheared regime.

To the west, a small area of strong thunderstorm potential is
forecast from IA into northwest IL after 06Z, in association with a
shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley. Lift near the
850 mb front along with steepening lapse rates may yield an elevated
cluster of storms forming over south-central IA. Radar presentation
of the initial activity may indicate hail in the strongest storm
cores, but this may be short lived due to merging updrafts over
time. While severe hail is not currently forecast, at least small
hail appears likely.

...Jewell.. 10/03/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/

....Synopsis/Discussion...
Morning surface observations depict a southwest/northeast-oriented
quasi-stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the
Mid/Upper MS Valley. Within the base of a large-scale trough over
the north-central CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough and related
lift will overspread the boundary during the overnight/early morning
hours. The associated low-level mass response will favor the
east-northeastward movement of a weak frontal-wave low along the
boundary -- promoting isolated to widely scattered elevated
thunderstorms atop the frontal surface in the 06-12Z time frame
(generally focused over eastern IA and northwest IL). Around 30-40
kt of effective shear could lead to a couple embedded cells capable
of small to marginally severe hail initially, though the steeper
midlevel lapse-rate plume and favorable instability should be
displaced to the south of this activity -- generally limiting the
severe threat.

$$

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