Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 03 2024 16:25:18

ACUS01 KWNS 031625
SWODY1
SPC AC 031623

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....Synopsis/Discussion...
Morning surface observations depict a southwest/northeast-oriented
quasi-stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the
Mid/Upper MS Valley. Within the base of a large-scale trough over
the north-central CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough and related
lift will overspread the boundary during the overnight/early morning
hours. The associated low-level mass response will favor the
east-northeastward movement of a weak frontal-wave low along the
boundary -- promoting isolated to widely scattered elevated
thunderstorms atop the frontal surface in the 06-12Z time frame
(generally focused over eastern IA and northwest IL). Around 30-40
kt of effective shear could lead to a couple embedded cells capable
of small to marginally severe hail initially, though the steeper
midlevel lapse-rate plume and favorable instability should be
displaced to the south of this activity -- generally limiting the
severe threat.

...Weinman.. 10/03/2024

$$

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