Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Oct 03 2024 15:31:20 FOUS30 KWBC 031531 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1131 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024 Day 1 Valid 16Z Thu Oct 03 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. A continued depiction of locally heavy rainfall exists within this morning CAMs around Southeastern LA into the coastal areas of AL/MS. The threat within the latest hi-res is a bit less ostentatious compared to even the previous forecast outputs correlating to lower probabilities for heavier precip necessary to attain a risk area. Still anticipating some localized totals of 2-4" across the Southeast Parishes with the areas of highest threat for any flash flood concerns still residing within urban corridors like New Orleans, Biloxi, and Mobile. Considering all those locations are running <45% within the 3" precip probability, the threat will remain non-zero, but still falling short of the MRGL risk threshold necessary to implement a low-end risk. A secondary area of note resides over the Tampa metro where locally enhanced rainfall from sea breeze convection will drop a quick 2-4" with locally as much as 5" within some CAMs output. Rainfall rates, both hourly and intra-hour will be the defining point for flash flood concerns over the area and current prospects are borderline for flash flood concerns, but again non-zero in the grand scheme. The=20 nil ERO across the CONUS was maintained, but will still monitor the two areas above for targeted upgrades pending radar evolution. Mesoscale Precip Discussions might be more beneficial in this setup considering the smaller footprint of flash flood potential.=20=20 Kleebauer Day 2 Valid 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024 - 12Z Sat Oct 05 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. During this period there will be broad cyclonic over the Western Gulf along with deep tropical air that advects into the flow. This will result in convection that breaks out across the Gulf and creeps inland into South Texas. A majority of the guidance maintains the highest QPF offshore however there could be 0.75 to 1.5 inches that occurs in South Texas that should provide beneficial moisture to the area rather than pose as an threat for local flooding concerns. Campbell Day 3 Valid 12Z Sat Oct 05 2024 - 12Z Sun Oct 06 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Campbell Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4okXyLeMmTupwBm465MnFUeYAl65zP5LD2vgqR34LKk2= 9tE9WcGhiILJ6k1FmUD21uYYurEojYEYP5eLfd4SBTltXuo$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4okXyLeMmTupwBm465MnFUeYAl65zP5LD2vgqR34LKk2= 9tE9WcGhiILJ6k1FmUD21uYYurEojYEYP5eLfd4S44nzzVo$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4okXyLeMmTupwBm465MnFUeYAl65zP5LD2vgqR34LKk2= 9tE9WcGhiILJ6k1FmUD21uYYurEojYEYP5eLfd4S-guxZXI$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .