Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Oct 03 2024 08:28:28 FOUS30 KWBC 030828 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 428 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024 Day 1 Valid 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. The latest guidance continues to have heavier QPF over the=20 Southeast Louisiana Parishes with areal averages of 2 to 3 inches for areas along and south of I-10 from near New Orleans through=20 Biloxi towards Mobile, with some of the CAMs as much as 3 to 5=20 inches near the coastline. Spread persists in the placement of the local maxima with the highest potential likely over either St.=20 Bernard or Plaquemines Parishes, both areas that are very difficult to flood due to the swampy land structures and sandier soils that=20 limit flash flood potential.=20 Campbell Day 2 Valid 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024 - 12Z Sat Oct 05 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. During this period there will be broad cyclonic over the Western=20 Gulf along with deep tropical air that advects into the flow. This will result in convection that breaks out across the Gulf and creeps inland into South Texas. A majority of the guidance maintainsthe highest QPF offshore however there could be 0.75 to=20 1.5 inches that occurs in South Texas that should provide=20 beneficial moisture to the area rather than pose as an threat for=20 local flooding concerns. Campbell Day 3 Valid 12Z Sat Oct 05 2024 - 12Z Sun Oct 06 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Campbell Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7vQrrqNPwlRXZAgpQMpoyw4wRrxI5Qi0UUtDRQ1gELzp= ynPR0jmGkA2iMpkEyF00-i36Dfjw-Az3cjS0s5cYUPpDwrU$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7vQrrqNPwlRXZAgpQMpoyw4wRrxI5Qi0UUtDRQ1gELzp= ynPR0jmGkA2iMpkEyF00-i36Dfjw-Az3cjS0s5cYzzBKXHo$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7vQrrqNPwlRXZAgpQMpoyw4wRrxI5Qi0UUtDRQ1gELzp= ynPR0jmGkA2iMpkEyF00-i36Dfjw-Az3cjS0s5cYzIQZH50$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .