Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 03 2024 07:24:02

ACUS03 KWNS 030723
SWODY3
SPC AC 030722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday.

....Synopsis...
A potent upper-level shortwave trough will make quick progress
across the northern Plains and move into the upper Mississippi
Valley by early evening. A deep surface cyclone within the Canadian
Prairie will move east along with its parent upper-level system.
Attendant to this cyclone, a cold front will quickly through
Minnesota, Wisconsin, and eventually much of Michigan by early
Sunday morning.

....Upper-Mississippi Valley Vicinity...
Ahead of the cold front, some moisture return is expected to occur.
However, this moisture return will have no connection to the Gulf
due to a previous frontal passage to near the Gulf Coast. Lack of
low-level moisture will likely preclude any potential for
surface-based storms. By early evening, strong mid-level ascent,
linear frontal forcing, and 850 mb warm air advection should promote
scattered storm development from the Mississippi Valley into parts
of Wisconsin. Deep-layer winds will be strong, but effective shear
will only be marginal given the elevated nature of the convection.
500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE could support some stronger updrafts that could
produce small hail. The marginal effective shear and messy storm
modes should preclude any greater risk.

...Wendt.. 10/03/2024

$$

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