Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 02 2024 19:32:01

ACUS01 KWNS 021931
SWODY1
SPC AC 021930

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....20Z Update...
Forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the outlook.
Previous forecast discussion appended below.

...Mosier.. 10/02/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/

....Synopsis...
Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a
quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across portions of
northern FL. South of the boundary, diurnal heating of a moist air
mass, coupled with sea breeze circulations, will support scattered
diurnal thunderstorm development. Deep tropospheric moisture and
steepening low-level lapse rates may support a few wet microbursts
with strong-gust potential over central FL -- where any localized
clustering occurs. However, weak deep-layer shear and poor midlevel
lapse rates should limit the organization and intensity of storms.

$$

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