Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Oct 02 2024 15:38:02 FOUS30 KWBC 021537 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1137 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024 Day 1 Valid 16Z Wed Oct 02 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Sea breeze activity across the FL Peninsula will be the primary area of precip across the CONUS with only modest signals within the CAMs/HREF for >3" at any given point this afternoon and evening. Considering the FFG indices and proposed rainfall rates likely well-below the threshold necessary, the threat was deemed very low probability for flash flooding and did not meet the MRGL risk criteria. The nil ERO was maintained for the D1 forecast.=20 Kleebauer Day 2 Valid 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. For a few days now there has been a signal for moderate to possibly locally heavy rainfall to move northward from the Gulf of Mexico into far southeast portions of Louisiana and up near the Mississippi River delta. This is associated with moisture convergence along a quasi- stationary frontal boundary over the northern Gulf of Mexico. There have been a fair amount of spread on where and how much will occur and that has not resolved much for this round of guidance. In general consensus keeps the highest QPF over the Gulf while a couple of solutions suggest 2-3+ inches may reach the coastal water and the wetlands. In coordination with the local forecast office in New Orleans the forecast QPF will likely not lead to any impacts of significance for the wetland areas of southeast Louisiana especially given their recent drier stretch. The Marginal Risk area was removed for this period. Campbell Day 3 Valid 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024 - 12Z Sat Oct 05 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. As mentioned during the Day 2 period there has been a multi-day pattern where the convection is just offshore the Gulf Coast but within the convection there could be a few inches of isolated heavy rainfall. The spread for this period favors a placement more over the Gulf than the Gulf Coastline. There is a non zero potential for localized moderate, possibly heavy rainfall intensities however nothing that is expected to become problematic at this time. Campbell Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8po1XR4WbnbPHqv7XdeAvpt_WQiLtfoyomUp8V8_L_Lx= HtOM9nTRGAAv5SEN2uEiCukuRhY5eRTNA0QR7tv-lElhK3o$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8po1XR4WbnbPHqv7XdeAvpt_WQiLtfoyomUp8V8_L_Lx= HtOM9nTRGAAv5SEN2uEiCukuRhY5eRTNA0QR7tv-tQCVKwI$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8po1XR4WbnbPHqv7XdeAvpt_WQiLtfoyomUp8V8_L_Lx= HtOM9nTRGAAv5SEN2uEiCukuRhY5eRTNA0QR7tv-sB0omjU$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .