Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Oct 02 2024 00:59:32 FOUS30 KWBC 020059 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 859 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024 Day 1 Valid 01Z Wed Oct 02 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA Peninsula... 01Z Update... As low pressure off of the Mid-Atlantic Coast continues to drift further offshore, the threat for additional widespread heavy rainfall amounts has ended. Therefore, the Marginal Risk was removed from the Mid-Atlantic. Across Florida, the Marginal Risk was maintained. Deep moisture (PWs at or above 2 inches) ahead of a frontal boundary that is=20 settling across North Florida, along with weak forcing aloft, will help continue to support shower and thunderstorm activity across=20 the region for at least a few more hours before waning overnight.=20 HREF neighborhood probabilities indicate that some areas,=20 especially near Lake Okeechobee, could see additional amounts of 2+ inches before these storms dissipate. Pereira Day 2 Valid 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. There will be a lingering potential for convection near the eastern coastline that could result in bursts of modest or very local heavy rainfall intensities. The threat for excessive rainfall and flooding concerns will remain below the 5 percent threshold for this period. Hamrick/Campbell Day 3 Valid 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... There is the potential for moderate to locally heavy rainfall to move northward from the Gulf of Mexico and affect areas near the Mississippi River delta, and generally along and south of the Interstate 10 corridor in Louisiana. This is associated with moisture convergence along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The latest 12Z model guidance suggests the heaviest rainfall should remain just offshore, but any northward trend could lead to some nuisance level instances of flooding, thus prompting a Marginal Risk area. Max model QPF for the 24-hour period is on the order of 3-4 inches over the coastal waters. Hamrick Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_KmdUQ31vkNSNG8HYZj0tFNeaejSMP5rK3JOvdJ54mmo= aCFoLrqIpVMlJaRjSQeJnkRfJuZ-bvGIHV6naxAuakh5rD8$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_KmdUQ31vkNSNG8HYZj0tFNeaejSMP5rK3JOvdJ54mmo= aCFoLrqIpVMlJaRjSQeJnkRfJuZ-bvGIHV6naxAuY8Imsyk$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_KmdUQ31vkNSNG8HYZj0tFNeaejSMP5rK3JOvdJ54mmo= aCFoLrqIpVMlJaRjSQeJnkRfJuZ-bvGIHV6naxAuw38EGdw$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .