Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Oct 01 2024 20:06:44 FOUS30 KWBC 012006 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 406 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024 Day 1 Valid 16Z Tue Oct 01 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA... ....Virginia/North Carolina... During this period an area of low pressure will slowly slide off the Virginia and North Carolina coast while periods of heavy rainfall persists from Fredericksburg south and east through Hampton Roads and across portions of far northeastern North Carolina and the northern Outer Banks. Rain amounts and coverage are expected to decrease later today as the low moves farther offshore. Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1088 is valid through 21Z and has additional detailed information on the ongoing heavy rainfall potential across portions of the outlook areas. The inherited Marginal Risk was maintained albeit with minor adjustments to reflect the latest model guidance. This includes some expansion to the west to include some HREF FF exceedance probabilities across portions of western Virginia. ....Central Florida... A disturbance moving along the stationary front over the central Florida Peninsula may support more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity between Gainesville and Naples Tuesday afternoon. Training of the convection and impacts with the urban centers may result in some instances of flash flooding. The inherited Marginal Risk was maintained with a slight expansion to the south. This updated outlook includes the areas with HREF flash flood guidance exceedance probabilities through this evening. The latest CAM guidance indicates the potential for scattered 2-4 inch rainfall maxima, with much of this falling within a two hour time period for any given location. Hamrick/Campbell Day 2 Valid 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. There will be a lingering potential for convection near the eastern coastline that could result in bursts of modest or very local heavy rainfall intensities. The threat for excessive rainfall and flooding concerns will remain below the 5 percent threshold for this period. Hamrick/Campbell Day 3 Valid 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... There is the potential for moderate to locally heavy rainfall to=20 move northward from the Gulf of Mexico and affect areas near the=20 Mississippi River delta, and generally along and south of the Interstate 10 corridor in Louisiana. This is associated with=20 moisture convergence along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The latest 12Z model guidance=20 suggests the heaviest rainfall should remain just offshore, but any northward trend could lead to some nuisance level instances of=20 flooding, thus prompting a Marginal Risk area. Max model QPF for=20 the 24-hour period is on the order of 3-4 inches over the coastal=20 waters. Hamrick Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6njeUOUDUTfcWz1tcxKljHBiifA1d3wtggbwT-UALUbM= qutqcu2gbr1SiYzcj1lptxMpG7rBluz-Eb5Ch2pRmTvxQEA$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6njeUOUDUTfcWz1tcxKljHBiifA1d3wtggbwT-UALUbM= qutqcu2gbr1SiYzcj1lptxMpG7rBluz-Eb5Ch2pRIH65po0$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6njeUOUDUTfcWz1tcxKljHBiifA1d3wtggbwT-UALUbM= qutqcu2gbr1SiYzcj1lptxMpG7rBluz-Eb5Ch2pRkzticzI$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .