Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 01 2024 19:51:19

ACUS01 KWNS 011951
SWODY1
SPC AC 011949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through the remainder of today
into tonight.

....20z Update...
Severe potential across the CONUS remains low. Minor trimming was
done to the thunder areas across parts of FL, and the western Great
Lakes where thunder is no longer expected. Otherwise, the prior
forecast remains valid with no changes, see the previous discussion.

...Lyons.. 10/01/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/

Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible over
parts of the FL peninsula, and over eastern NC/southeast VA.  Ample
low-level moisture is present in these areas, along with strong
daytime heating.  However, poor mid-level lapse rates and weak wind
fields below 4km will limit the intensity of storms, with no severe
activity expected.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will affect the central/eastern
Great Lakes region today/tonight as a cold front sweeps across the
area.  Weak instability will preclude organized severe concerns.

A few thunderstorms are expected later today over parts of southern
AZ,  western NM, and southern CO.  While the strongest cells could
produce gusty winds over southern AZ, no organized severe activity
is expected.

$$

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