Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Oct 01 2024 15:55:27 FOUS30 KWBC 011555 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1155 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024 Day 1 Valid 16Z Tue Oct 01 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA... ....Virginia/North Carolina... During this period an area of low pressure will slowly slide off=20 the Virginia and North Carolina coast while periods of heavy=20 rainfall persists from Fredericksburg south and east through=20 Hampton Roads and across portions of far northeastern North=20 Carolina and the northern Outer Banks. Rain amounts and coverage=20 are expected to decrease later today as the low moves farther=20 offshore. Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1088 is valid through 21Z and has additional detailed information on the ongoing heavy=20 rainfall potential across portions of the outlook areas. The=20 inherited Marginal Risk was maintained albeit with minor=20 adjustments to reflect the latest model guidance. This includes=20 some expansion to the west to include some HREF FF exceedance=20 probabilities across portions of western Virginia. ....Central Florida... A disturbance moving along the stationary front over the central Florida Peninsula may support more widespread shower and=20 thunderstorm activity between Gainesville and Naples Tuesday=20 afternoon. Training of the convection and impacts with the urban=20 centers may result in some instances of flash flooding. The=20 inherited Marginal Risk was maintained with a slight expansion to the south. This updated outlook includes the areas with HREF flash flood guidance exceedance probabilities through this evening. The latest CAM guidance indicates the potential for scattered 2-4 inch rainfall maxima, with much of this falling within a two hour time period for any given location. Hamrick/Campbell Day 2 Valid 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. There will be a lingering potential for convection near the eastern coastline that could result in bursts of modest or very local heavy rainfall intensities. The threat for excessive rainfall and flooding concerns will remain below the 5 percent threshold for this period. Campbell Day 3 Valid 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. There is a non zero possibility for locally modest to heavy rainfall to move northward from the Gulf of Mexico along the Gulf Coast anywhere from the Mississippi River delta to west of the Florida bend. There is a fair amount of model spread that further serves to decrease confidence on where any of these storms may occur. At this time a trends suggest that the bulk of the heaviest rainfall will remain south of the coastline. Campbell Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7dyFJ2yR_Akh3PBY_OEpqN3N06bQZA1VlYdMu1WQ_Cra= dcZEEQeCvfWlCwwnCbyud6nVa959X-Ez06eBD3NDQuWxf0w$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7dyFJ2yR_Akh3PBY_OEpqN3N06bQZA1VlYdMu1WQ_Cra= dcZEEQeCvfWlCwwnCbyud6nVa959X-Ez06eBD3NDB9_mjOE$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7dyFJ2yR_Akh3PBY_OEpqN3N06bQZA1VlYdMu1WQ_Cra= dcZEEQeCvfWlCwwnCbyud6nVa959X-Ez06eBD3NDFRrSPdM$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .