Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 01 2024 12:27:19

ACUS01 KWNS 011227
SWODY1
SPC AC 011225

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

....Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, the main belt of westerlies is expected to
remain near the Canadian border through the period, extending across
more of the Great Lakes with time.  That will occur as a synoptic-
scale trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery from a low over
westernmost parts of Hudson Bay across northwestern ON to the upper
Mississippi Valley -- ejects northeastward over northern ON, and
James and Hudson Bays, through the period.  This stronger flow will
remain well poleward of thunder potential today near a weakening/
ejecting trough over the Tidewater region, south of a weak front
over FL, and under or south of a weakening synoptic ridge over parts
of CO/NM/AZ.  Vertical shear and lapse rates aloft will be too weak
in any of those areas to support organized severe potential.
Locally strong gusts may accompany the high-based convection in AZ,
with a deep/well-mixed subcloud layer, but only modest (5-15 kt)
midlevel easterlies.  A cold front sweeping across the Great Lakes,
Ohio Valley, lower Mississippi Valley, and southern Plains, should
encounter a marginally moist/unstable airmass for isolated thunder,
within a band of convection over parts of the eastern Great Lakes.

...Edwards/Dean.. 10/01/2024

$$

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