Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Oct 01 2024 01:43:47 FOUS30 KWBC 010143 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 943 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Day 1 Valid 01Z Tue Oct 01 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 01 2024 ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ....01Z Update... There remain two areas of heavy rainfall focus this evening, with one over the Piedmont and Mountains of Virginia and southeast West Virginia, and a second area over northeastern North Carolina into the southern portions of the Hampton Roads area. Although the showers are not particularly intense nor widespread in coverage across southwestern Virginia, there has been limited movement with these showers over the past few hours, and this has been resulting in flash flood guidance to be exceeded in some areas since the ground remains quite saturated. The latest HREF probabilities of flash flood guidance exceedance remain elevated in patchy areas, and therefore the existing Slight Risk area remains through the remainder of Day 1. Farther to the east across the coastal plain, a separate cluster of heavy showers and storms is slowly tracking eastward, and the latest CAM guidance indicates the potential for localized QPF maxima of 2-3 inches overnight. Therefore, the existing Slight Risk area has been expanded eastward to account for this activity. Elsewhere, except for trimming back the remaining Marginal Risk area some, no major changes were warranted. Hamrick Day 2 Valid 12Z Tue Oct 01 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AS WELL AS FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA... ....Virginia/North Carolina... A departing mesolow will move off the coast of VA/NC on Tuesday. Periods of heavy rain may continue from Richmond south and east through Hampton Roads and portions of far northeastern North Carolina and the northern Outer Banks. When added to expected rainfall in this region tonight, isolated flash flooding is possible. Much of the rain is expected through about mid-afternoon or so before the low is far enough out into the Atlantic to no longer pose a flooding risk. Thus, a Marginal Risk was introduced with this update. ....Central Florida... A disturbance moving along the stationary front over central Florida may support more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity from Tampa through Orlando to the Space Coast Tuesday afternoon. Training of the convection and impacts with the urban centers may result in isolated flash flooding. Here too a small Marginal Risk was introduced with this update. Wegman Day 3 Valid 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Wegman Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4tQcFnbwpPX5esq7E2Ybxz7ONica48XlHlqYU_ebSSia= xCW270UFdJETwNnBw3XznIcA_ts8_V6IQ4TBikrrRR3LRLw$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4tQcFnbwpPX5esq7E2Ybxz7ONica48XlHlqYU_ebSSia= xCW270UFdJETwNnBw3XznIcA_ts8_V6IQ4TBikrrvmBs5kE$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4tQcFnbwpPX5esq7E2Ybxz7ONica48XlHlqYU_ebSSia= xCW270UFdJETwNnBw3XznIcA_ts8_V6IQ4TBikrrHrAV-SI$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .