Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 30 2024 16:10:07

ACUS01 KWNS 301610
SWODY1
SPC AC 301608

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Valid 301630Z - 011200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may affect
central/eastern North Carolina this afternoon.

....NC...
Late morning surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show a
weak boundary extending across eastern NC.  Strong heating will
occur along and to the south of the boundary this afternoon, where
dewpoints are in the mid 70s.  Despite the high/increasing low level
theta-e, CAPE profiles will be limited by poor mid-level lapse rates
but will still be sufficient for scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.  Low-level winds are weak, but forecast soundings
show veering in the lowest 2km near the boundary, and sufficient
southwesterly flow aloft for storm-scale organization.  This
suggests a scenario somewhat similar to yesterday in southern VA,
albeit a little more favorable.  A few rotating storms are possible,
with some potential for a tornado or two or locally strong wind
gusts with the more organized cells.  Therefore have added a narrow
MRGL risk area in vicinity of the surface boundary.

...Hart/Weinman.. 09/30/2024

$$

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