Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Sep 29 2024 19:12:28 ACUS01 KWNS 291912 SWODY1 SPC AC 291910 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for today. ....20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ...Squitieri.. 09/29/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024/ ....Synopsis... A relatively quiet convective day is expected across the CONUS today. Over portions of UT, weak/peripheral midlevel height falls will promote isolated high-based thunderstorms capable of locally strong gusts, aided by inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. Weak instability and flow/shear should limit thunderstorm intensity and organization. Farther east, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening over portions of the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic -- ahead of a vertically stacked/weakening cyclone. Very poor deep-layer lapse rates and warm air aloft may limit lightning over many areas, though a few isolated flashes cannot be ruled out, given some large-scale ascent. Ahead of a quasi-stationary front draped across northern FL, diurnal heating of a moist/uncapped air mass will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the FL Peninsula this afternoon. Locally strong water-loaded downbursts could accompany a couple storms over northeast FL, where low-level convergence and midlevel flow will be slightly stronger. However, poor midlevel lapse rates and only marginal deep-layer shear should limit the severe threat. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .