Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 27 2024 16:13:35

ACUS01 KWNS 271613
SWODY1
SPC AC 271612

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

....SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon across parts of
North Carolina and Virginia.

....Synopsis...
The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the
mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection
to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC.
Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance
indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient
rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes.
Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this
afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with
the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively
less moist air mass.  Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of
the line, limiting destabilization.  These trends would suggest the
overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening.

...Hart/Weinman.. 09/27/2024

$$

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