Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2116 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Sep 26 2024 17:53:24 ACUS11 KWNS 261753 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261752=20 GAZ000-261845- Mesoscale Discussion 2116 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern/southeastern Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 684...685... Valid 261752Z - 261845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 684, 685 continues. SUMMARY...Low-topped supercells have shown increased low-level rotation over the last few hours across southeastern/eastern GA. The air mass in place is not overly favorable for tornadoes in the short term casting some uncertainty on the longevity of the tornado threat. A greater tornado risk should develop later today as Helene approaches. DISCUSSION...As of 1745 UTC, regional radar imagery shows a broad area of stratiform precipitation and embedded convective elements ongoing near a stationary front across potions of southern/eastern GA. North of the primary outer bands of TC Helene, substantial precipitation has been ongoing over the past 24. Despite strong low-level warm air advection, the precipitation has severely limited diurnal destabilization this far inland. With Buoyancy less than 250 J/kg of MUCAPE on SPC mesoanalysis, most of the convection is very low-topped and weak. Still, low-level hodographs have enlarged (and will continue to do so) through the day. This is supporting some tornado risk with the more robust cells in several weak bands. Eventually, a higher-theta E air mass should move in as the core of Helene approaches from the south later this afternoon/evening. This could support more buoyancy and a greater tornado risk. The primary uncertainty remains the limited buoyancy through the next several hours north of and west of Tornado Watch #685 and #684 respectively. A local extension of the active watches could be required to cover the more uncertain short-term tornado risk. However, the approach of Helene will eventually support a longer-fused tornado threat as low-level wind fields and buoyancy increase substantially. For now, the risk of tornadoes appears lower, though trends will continue to be monitored. ...Lyons/Mosier.. 09/26/2024 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_tpDohcQz6MDgwTYDGzxSRh5yMgJoNTmu66XAQkRKFnaWKafxyl_pVO3yBf7W9FQH509ot-FP= lebsA4k33BNkDGYB_c$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 31638231 31748395 31968427 32928364 33298289 33408240 33218227 32108210 31928211 31638231=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .