Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Sep 26 2024 16:50:23 ACUS02 KWNS 261650 SWODY2 SPC AC 261648 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN... ....SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon on Friday, across parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ....Carolinas/VA... TC Helene is forecast by NHC to become a tropical storm by 12Z Friday as it quickly progresses inland over the Southeast. This cyclone will further weaken as it rotates around and becomes further absorbed with an existing closed mid-level low over the Deep South. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume on the eastern semicircle, will be strongest at the start of the period and weaken appreciably during the afternoon. Hodograph enlargement will be pronounced in the morning, but should still remain adequate for a tornado threat into the afternoon. A lower-topped convective band will be ongoing at 12Z, most likely centered over the Pee Dee of SC to the Piedmont of the NC/SC border area. This should advance quickly north through the rest of the morning into the afternoon across the NC Piedmont/Coastal Plain and southern VA. The greatest relative tornado threat should be along the NC/SC border area near the coast through late morning. As a dry slot punches rapidly north-northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will come to an abrupt end from south to north. Shrinking hodographs within the rich tropical moisture plume should result in a more spatially confined/waning threat later in the day. ...Grams.. 09/26/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .