Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Sep 26 2024 06:02:20 ACUS01 KWNS 260602 SWODY1 SPC AC 260600 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ....SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible later today into tonight, in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected from parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ....FL/GA into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is forecast to move north to north-northeast and accelerate across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. See NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. Increasing low-level flow/shear associated with Helene's large wind field will overspread the Florida Peninsula this morning, southeast Georgia and parts of SC by this afternoon, and eventually into parts of NC later tonight. Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Due to Helene's large size and fast forward speed, a broad region from Florida and Georgia northward into the Carolinas will see some risk for tornadoes. During the day, Helene's rain bands will overspread the FL Peninsula, with other outer bands potentially moving inland across parts of GA/SC and eventually NC through tonight. The Enhanced Risk has been maintained and expanded somewhat from extreme northeast FL into coastal GA/SC, where multiple low-topped supercells will be possible within an increasingly favorable environment. Some tornado potential will spread into parts of NC later tonight, with the northern extent of the primary tornado threat still somewhat uncertain and dependent on Helene's forward speed and track. ....Hudson Valley vicinity into southern New England... An upper low will move eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England today. Strong large-scale ascent will aid in the development of convection during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Lapse rates will be weak and buoyancy modest at best, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds are possible, but confidence in sufficient destabilization is too low for severe probabilities at this time. ...Dean.. 09/26/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .