Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 26 2024 02:49:48

AWUS01 KWNH 260249
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-260600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1060
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1049 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Areas affected...Piedmont of GA and SC into the southern
Appalachains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 260248Z - 260600Z

SUMMARY...Areas of training are expected to continue over the next
few hours from the Piedmont of GA and SC into the southern
Appalachians. Peak rainfall rates in excess of 2 in/hr are
expected with potential for considerable impacts.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery over the Southeast showed an
advancing area of heavy rain moving north through south-central GA
along with a persistent axis of training heavy rain across the
southeast facing slopes of the southern Appalachians/Blue Ridge
Mountains. An axis of south to north training has been observed
from just south of I-40 near Lake Lure in western NC northward
toward the VA/NC border near Damascus. Observed peak rainfall
rates have occasionally reached between 2-3 in/hr with rainfall
totals for the day of 4 to 6 inches in the vicinity of I-40
between Asheville and Marion.

Low level southeasterly winds of 20-30 kt in the 925-850 mb layer
are expected to maintain a plume of robust moisture transport into
the terrain over the next few hours, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE
located just upstream across the Piedmont and adjacent foothills
of the mountains. An axis of low level convergence and areas of
training are expected to continue across western NC, and though
some lower rainfall rates are likely at times, the persistent
nature of training will continue a likely threat of flash flooding
with locally significant/considerable flash flood impacts
possible. Farther south into GA, the northward advancement of
heavier rain will be moving into portions of the state which
picked up 2 to 3 inches of rain since Wednesday afternoon with an
additional inch or two possible by 06Z.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9uRkReJ5am0F6lbjtuStoZddiEjBCfZhdS_JySntPthWdIf3NEWU_zgWgKKSDX_vt3n9=
RL_sllcvfYezbrWt4Jh7v3s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36658178 36408143 36068111 35308187 34808214=20
            34318256 33568286 33438358 33588397 33778433=20
            34318452 34918431 35448364 36028295 36358267=20
            36608234=20

=3D =3D =3D
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