Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 25 2024 19:12:15

ACUS03 KWNS 251912
SWODY3
SPC AC 251911

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...

....SUMMARY...
A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind
gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and
southern Virginia.

....Synopsis...
Upper ridging centered over the Southwest/northern Mexico is
forecast to remain in place on Friday, with some modest northward
expansion possible. To the east of this ridging, complex interaction
is expected between a cold-core upper low initially over the
Mid-South and Tropical Cyclone Helene, which will likely be centered
over northern GA. Strong westerlies will remain along and north of
the US/Canada border, and stable conditions will persist west of the
Mississippi River. As such, tornadoes and strong convective gusts
associated with Helene will constitute the only severe risk across
the CONUS on Friday.

....Central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern VA...
Strong low to mid level flow will persist throughout the eastern
periphery of Helene on Friday, over an area characterized by low to
mid 70s dewpoints and modest buoyancy. This modest buoyancy could
support some deeper convective cores, particularly within any
rainbands. The combination of deeper, more persistent updrafts with
the strong low to mid level flow could support strong, convectively
augmented gusts and/or a few tornadoes.

...Mosier.. 09/25/2024

$$

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