Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 25 2024 18:42:06

AWUS01 KWNH 251842
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-260041-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1056
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Areas affected...Western Slopes of South-Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251841Z - 260041Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding into this evening as the
Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) expands north west of the
south-central Appalachian crest.

DISCUSSION...Two north-south corridors of locally heavy rain have
developed west of the crest of the Appalachians over eastern
KY/southern OH and over far southeast VA into central WV.
Localized rates of 1.25"/hr have been estimated recently south and
east of KJKL. This heavy rain is currently moving out of an area
in far southwest VA that received 3"+ over the past day.

An upper level low centered over the western tip of Kentucky is
drawing Gulf moisture on southwesterly low level flow around 10kt
which is why activity has been on the west side of the Appalachian
Crest thus far. Instability is somewhat limited with MLCAPE around
500 J/kg. However broad scale lift east of the developing low will
continue to overcome the lower instability.=20

Through the rest of the afternoon expect embedded cells of heavier
rain to continue lifting north with localized areas exceeding
1"/hr rainfall with potential for 2-3" in some pockets through
00Z. FFG is low in places, around 1"/3hrs where the heaviest rain
fell in far southwest VA and generally 1.5"/3hr elsewhere. Given
the lack of prolonged higher rates, flash flooding is considered
possible with an isolated coverage.

An intense moisture plume from Helene will shift up the southern
Appalachians overnight which will shift the heavy rainfall focus
to the eastern side of the southern Appalachian crest, so please
stay tuned for further heavy rainfall updates.

Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8dGFpl2olqaoar73bLvnYKwMMCeOBWHRFcefpBU8_lLPWZ6DJPd4_DWNlcNbm4tz5Yu1=
TH_odiAFPPN8uu0VhTiNifA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...ILN...JKL...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39208194 38218211 37998167 38898050 38788002=20
            38148034 37398116 36268191 36458364 37808331=20
            39108265=20

=3D =3D =3D
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