Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2107
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 25 2024 08:06:01

ACUS11 KWNS 250805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250805=20
TXZ000-251000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2107
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Areas affected...Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 250805Z - 251000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and wind-damage threat may persist
for another hour or two as a small complex of storms moves into the
Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. The severe threat area is expected to
remain small, and watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery shows a small
cluster of strong to severe storms located just to the north of the
Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. RAP analysis suggests that the airmass
is moderately unstable with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. The latest
WSR-88D VWP from Fort Worth has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots, with
gradually veering winds in the low to mid-levels. In addition, RAP
forecast soundings have steep mid-level lapse rates around 700 mb.
This should be enough to continue an isolated large-hail threat with
transient supercell structures embedded in the cluster. An isolated
wind-damage threat may also accompany the leading edge of the more
intense cells. The threats are expected to continue for another hour
or two.

...Broyles/Leitman.. 09/25/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-5gXDz2XZgoys8F4euYmAVQ4O6IzpjdWHhGxBBfp2KOU_xvVIRAg-WcFi8BxEJD60th1mFytx=
TCVdBibr60EQTR6zc8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

LAT...LON   33259646 32999616 32719612 32419633 32279664 32279704
            32409731 32569742 32969741 33239715 33259646=20


=3D =3D =3D
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