Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 24 2024 00:39:53

ACUS01 KWNS 240039
SWODY1
SPC AC 240038

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS
TO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms remain possible this
 evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio
Valleys.

....01z Update...

Positive-tilt short-wave trough has advanced into IA-eastern KS-OK
early this evening as upstream height falls appear to now be
influencing the movement of this feature. Large-scale ascent is
spreading across the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio
Valley, and one reflection of this stronger forcing is expressed as
a corridor of convection that extends from south of Springfield
IL-STL-extreme northern AR. Low-level warm advection continues ahead
of this activity with 10-15kt, 1km southwesterly flow from near the
confluence of the MS/OH Rivers into central KY. While effective
shear is not particularly strong, it's adequate for at least
organized clusters and perhaps a weak supercell or two. Given the
weak lapse rates, locally damaging winds should be the greatest
concern this evening.

...Darrow.. 09/24/2024

$$

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