Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 19 2024 01:00:54

ACUS01 KWNS 190100
SWODY1
SPC AC 190058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A NARROW
ZONE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms are possible this evening over parts of the
central Plains, and from the Red River into the upper Mississippi
Valley overnight.

....Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley...
Cooling aloft with an upper trough will continue eastward across the
Dakotas and into MN, with a cold front pushing east and providing a
focus for possible storm development. Convection is now forming
within a narrow instability axis over eastern ND, and some of the
cells could eventually produce severe hail. Additional activity may
occur farther south as well, although coverage is less certain. Cool
air aloft with veering winds with height will tend to favor sporadic
hail. For more information see mesoscale discussion 2085.

....Central Plains...
Warm temperatures and peak heating has led to isolated storms along
a retreating dryline from south-central KS into the eastern TX
Panhandle. While capping should eventually result in dissipation in
a couple hours, marginal hail or locally strong gusts will be
possible in the near term.

...Jewell.. 09/19/2024

$$

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