Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2085
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 18 2024 23:35:40

ACUS11 KWNS 182335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182334=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-190100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2085
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northeastern North Dakota into far
northwestern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 182334Z - 190100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and locally
severe gusts cannot be ruled out during the next few hours. A watch
is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Attempts at convective initiation are underway across
portions of northeastern ND, focused within a north/south-oriented
confluence band, and near an antecedent differential heating zone.
This activity may be aided by a lobe of midlevel ascent (evident in
water-vapor imagery) rotating around the eastern periphery of a
midlevel low over eastern MT. Middle/upper 60s dewpoints beneath a
plume of steep midlevel lapse rates are contributing to moderate
surface-based instability ahead of the developing storms.
Additionally, regional VWP depicts a long hodograph with modest
low-level hodograph curvature -- characterized by around 45 kt of
effective shear. Given subtle mesoscale forcing, storm maturation is
uncertain (especially given increasing nocturnal static stability),
though the aforementioned parameter space will conditionally support
a couple organized storms/supercells capable of producing large hail
and locally severe gusts. Any severe threat here is expected to
remain too isolated for a watch at this time.

...Weinman/Hart.. 09/18/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7tczntYsfIRAouPBRaLBiQ6J1h-C5StRPsmqDhuGr9VCllcYJBJ7QZ_gzsz_JZo0d3VEE6uHw=
ko0CW5h3QqqoBd-NkE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   47429858 47399898 47609941 47889981 48140007 48590026
            48940030 49090015 49159962 49169781 49089698 48839669
            48129670 47719702 47429858=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.