Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 16 2024 19:16:27

ACUS03 KWNS 161916
SWODY3
SPC AC 161915

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

....Great Plains...

Forecast guidance at 12z remains similar to previous cycles at Day
3/Wed. The cyclone over eastern MT will become stacked through the
period and only progress modestly northeast toward ND and southern
SK/MB by 12z Thursday. Enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead
of this feature will overspread the northern/central Plains, while
southerly low-level flow allows 60s F dewpoints to remain in place
from the southern Plains to the MO and Red River (north) Valleys.
Convection may be ongoing across parts of the mid-MO Valley vicinity
Wednesday morning, with areas of cloud debris expected across the
broader Plains. This will result in some uncertainty in airmass
recovery/destabilization during the afternoon. While outflow
boundaries and pockets of stronger heating may focus mesoscale areas
of thunderstorm potential during peak heating through early evening
from the eastern Dakotas/MN south/southwest into the TX Panhandle,
severe potential is uncertain. Large-scale ascent will remain
nebulous across much of the Plains, and midlevel lapse rates will be
modest due to relatively warm temperatures aloft. Vertical shear
could support some organized/severe risk from eastern SD/NE into KS,
but uncertainty and the conditional nature of potential risk
precludes low severe probabilities at this time.

...Leitman.. 09/16/2024

$$

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