Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 15 2024 05:59:48

ACUS01 KWNS 150559
SWODY1
SPC AC 150558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail will be
possible today across parts of the central and northern High Plains.

....Central and Northern High Plains...
An upper-level low will move southward along the West Coast today,
as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the western third
of the U.S. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move
northeastward through the central Rockies. Ahead of the trough, a
moist airmass will be in place in the central and northern Plains,
where surface dewpoints will mostly be from the upper 50s to the mid
60s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability is
expected to develop over much of this airmass. MLCAPE is forecast to
peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range in areas that heat up the most.
The instability axis is forecast to be located from northwest Kansas
northward into western Nebraska and southwest South Dakota by mid to
late afternoon. At this time, RAP forecast soundings near the
instability axis have low to mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km,
and enough deep-layer shear for a marginal severe threat. Isolated
severe gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger cells,
mainly during the late afternoon and early evening.

...Broyles/Weinman.. 09/15/2024

$$

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