Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Sep 15 2024 02:19:46 AWUS01 KWNH 150219 FFGMPD FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-150816- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1011 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1018 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Areas affected...Far Southeast AL...Extreme Southwest GA...Portions of the FL Panhandle Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 150216Z - 150816Z SUMMARY...Locally extreme rainfall rates associated with areas of nearly stationary thunderstorms over far southeast AL, extreme southwest GA and portions of the FL Panhandle will likely continue over the next several hours. Additional areas of flash flooding are likely, and locally considerable pockets of flash flooding will be possible. DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows areas of nearly stationary thunderstorms over far southeast AL and portions of the FL Panhandle. The convection is associated with an axis of relatively focused moisture convergence situated near a front and wave of low pressure which is coinciding with the nose of moderate instability characterized by MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg. There is also a belt of stronger mid-level west-northwest flow aloft crossing the region which is yielding as much as 30 to 40 kts of effective bulk shear. PWs are on the order of 1.8 to 2.0 inches and this coupled with the instability and shear magnitudes has already been yielding rainfall rates as high as 2 to 3 inches/hour, and some sustenance of these rates are expected over at least the next few hours given expectations of the environment remaining conducive for convection to persist, at least going through the 06Z time frame. Recent HRRR runs are quite aggressive with the rainfall totals over the next few hours with as much as 3 to 6+ inches of additional rain forecast going through 06Z. Given the slow cell-motions and wet antecedent conditions, these additional rains are likely to result in additional areas of flash flooding, some which may be capable of producing considerable impacts. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!95fCRRe19pVbRKJKKcPr30Qh9Nh2_wR0xnIqT2aYynbw4cqb5L_cMzWagRFGTYwv3Mg2= 3d9NjaDa-xmh7M1yJdpZjQQ$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 31858561 31548502 30778469 30068444 29778469=20 29788528 30318580 31198627 31668603=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .