Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Sep 14 2024 07:28:43 ACUS03 KWNS 140728 SWODY3 SPC AC 140727 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO FOUR CORNERS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail will be possible on Monday afternoon to early evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin to Four Corners. ....Eastern Great Basin to the Four Corners... An amplified closed mid/upper low over northern/central CA at 12Z Monday should initially move east before curling northeast Monday night towards the NV/UT/ID border area. This will occur in response to a vigorous mid-level jet translating through the basal portion of the large-scale trough across the Desert Southwest into the eastern Great Basin. Surface cyclogenesis should be induced near the UT/NV border area, with a predominant meridional deep-layer flow regime near/just ahead of the low. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop as modest steepening of mid-level lapse rates overspreads a deepening boundary layer during the afternoon. The strengthening synoptic flow regime coupled with inverted-v thermodynamic profiles west of the Wasatch Range may yield sporadic severe gusts with low-topped, high-based convection. Farther southeast towards the Four Corners, a more southwesterly mid to upper-flow regime should yield hodograph elongation, conditionally supporting splitting supercells. Warmer mid-level temperatures and correspondingly weaker lapse rates should temper parcel acceleration to an extent, but this may be offset by somewhat higher PW values. Marginally severe hail/gusts will be possible. ....Coastal Carolinas... Guidance has trended towards a greater signal for offshore subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis by Monday. Still, spread is quite large with the degree of amplification as NCEP guidance appears to be on the aggressive spectrum relative to non-NCEP models. With timing and spatial differences also large, will defer on a potential tornado threat highlight. ...Grams.. 09/14/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .