Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 14 2024 00:58:11

ACUS01 KWNS 140058
SWODY1
SPC AC 140056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe gust and a brief tornado
will be possible this evening across parts of central and northern
Alabama.

....Central and Northern Alabama...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over the mid
Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a corridor of maximized
low-level moisture is located from Alabama into Tennessee, where the
RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing from south-central Alabama
north-northwestward into Tennessee. The Birmingham 00Z sounding is
located near the instability axis, and has a low-end supercell wind
profile with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range. This could
support an isolated threat for severe gusts over the next couple of
hours. A brief tornado could also occur. However, low-level lapse
rates are poor and low-level shear is weak. As the boundary layer
cools, the environment should become less favorable for severe
storms.

...Broyles.. 09/14/2024

$$

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