Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 13 2024 19:47:11

ACUS01 KWNS 131947
SWODY1
SPC AC 131945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this
afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle
Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur.

....20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.

...Thornton/Gleason.. 09/13/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/

....Southeast...
The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located
over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening
through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South
moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a
front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into
northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a
focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even
though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains
prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime
heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present,
which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal
thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level
shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may
support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a
tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur
with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This
isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the
surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime
heating.

$$

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