Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 13 2024 05:39:07

ACUS02 KWNS 130539
SWODY2
SPC AC 130537

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday.

....Central High Plains to central/western SD...
As a Pacific cold front stalls and decays Friday night over the
northern Great Plains, a north/south-oriented surface trough should
redevelop west by late Saturday afternoon from northeast CO to the
western Dakotas. While a minority of models suggest isolated
thunderstorms may form along this boundary, the majority suggests
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop during the
afternoon in the modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime
ahead of the trough. This regime may be aided by a low-amplitude
upper-level trough trailing southward from the Canadian Prairies,
but neutral to weak mid-level height rises are forecast during the
period. Upper flow will be weak near the trough, but sufficient
veering of low to mid-level winds with height may yield effective
bulk shear of 25-30 kts. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, a couple
of storms could produce marginally severe hail. Moderate spatial
uncertainty with this corridor of risk, along with the marginal
nature of the conditional severe threat, precludes an areal
delineation.

....Southeast...
The remnants of post-TC Francine should slowly weaken and remain
nearly stationary in the Lower MS Valley. At least modest buoyancy
should be displaced well to its southeast across FL into south GA
and southeast AL on Saturday afternoon. Weaknesses in both
deep-layer shear and lapse rates above the boundary layer suggest
the threat for organized severe storms is negligible.

...Grams.. 09/13/2024

$$

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