Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 13 2024 05:35:09

ACUS01 KWNS 130535
SWODY1
SPC AC 130533

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
An isolated tornado threat is expected to develop this morning and
afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia and middle
Tennessee. A few isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of
Alabama, southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.

....Southeast...
The remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine are expected to move
slowly across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley today. To the
southeast of the upper low, an axis of instability is forecast to be
in place across eastern Alabama this morning. As surface
temperatures warm, thunderstorm development be likely along and near
the instability axis. Storms will move northward across eastern
Alabama and middle Tennessee, along and near a corridor of maximized
low-level winds. RAP forecast soundings this morning near this
corridor have 0-1 km shear near 20 knots in northeast Alabama and
around 25 knots in middle Tennessee. This suggests a low-end
potential for tornadoes associated with semi-discrete rotating
cells. The threat may continue into the afternoon as instability
maximizes across the region. A potential for severe gusts will also
be possible across Alabama extending southward into the Florida
Panhandle, where low-level shear may not be as strong but moderate
instability is expected to develop.

...Broyles/Weinman.. 09/13/2024

$$

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