Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 12 2024 20:40:39

AWUS01 KWNH 122040
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-130245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0999
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
439 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Areas affected...Western TN...Northeast AR...Far Southeast
MO...Far Southwest KY...Ext. Northern MS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122045Z - 130245Z

SUMMARY...Prolonged moderate rainfall (.25-.5") resulting in broad
area of 1.5-2.5" over wet or currently saturating upper soils may
result in a few instances of flooding through the evening into the
early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...Remote sensing loops from regional RADAR and GOES-E
depict Post-Tropical T.C. Francine is continuing to wind down as
it slowly lifts out of N MS.  Surface and mid-level circulations
appear to be further displacing from SW to NE but well defined
TROWAL is noted across NW AL wrapping back and broadening across
the Mid-Mississippi Valley.  Broad isentropic ascent has been
producing .1 to .25"/hr broadly across much of the area of
concern, though a few cyclonically arched bands remain with the
strongest coincident with the deeper confluence across NW AL into
SW TN.  Here flux is stronger with the higher winds and rates get
between .33-.5"/hr.  Stronger cells with more intense rates given
available unstable air allowing for vertical development exist
across AL, please refer to MPD 998 for further details.

As the low lifts/elongates to the northeast, the longest duration
of isentropic ascent will sharpen across NE AR/far W TN to allow
for duration over the next 6hours to support spots of 2-2.5", some
over saturated areas that have already seen a reduction in FFG
values in the range of 2-2.5"/3-6hrs, as such, flash flooding is
considered possible; though more than likely this will evolve into
a longer flood/hydrological routing issue with greatest flood risk
within typical areas prone to flooding, in particular near/within
urban centers.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5ZksbAxf8X_grQvFkNk9japdaypaFGU5XfYZZ923iZ-WtfXXf0u6pfr2-zI9K7as8qhU=
AWSxue7oOQ5O7uicgQLDwgM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37048995 36978913 36568811 36028769 35518750=20
            35068763 35048846 34858990 34599070 35149156=20
            35909159 36529107 36889063=20

=3D =3D =3D
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