Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Sep 12 2024 17:25:34 ACUS02 KWNS 121725 SWODY2 SPC AC 121724 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY TO THE FL PANHANDLE... ....SUMMARY... A couple brief tornadoes and locally damaging winds are possible across a part of the Southeast on Friday morning into the afternoon. ....Synopsis... The remnants of TC Francine will begin the day somewhere across eastern Arkansas and slowly drift east through the day while weakening. A belt of moderate mid-level flow will persist across the southern periphery of this remnant low. Farther west, a strong mid-level trough across the northern Rockies will weaken and move into the Canadian Prairies. A remnant surface cold front will traverse the Northern Plains through the day on Friday. ....Portions of the Southeast... A plume of tropical moisture will remain from the Florida Panhandle into central Tennessee on Friday. A mostly uncapped airmass is expected through the entire convective period. However, some greater instability is likely during the afternoon with some surface heating. However, given the limited inhibition, convective overturning is expected before more substantial instability can develop. Nonetheless, an extended period of 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE with 25 to 30 knots of effective shear will support some multicell clusters or occasional supercells. This may result in a brief tornado or two and the potential for locally damaging wind gusts, primarily during the afternoon/early evening on Friday. ....Northern Plains into the central Plains... A line of thunderstorms will likely develop along a cold front in North Dakota and South Dakota on Friday. However, instability will be relatively limited and elevated (500-800 J/kg MUCAPE). This weak instability combined with limited upper-level synoptic support, should mitigate any severe weather threat. Farther south, a few thunderstorms are possible in the Texas Panhandle and into western Oklahoma in the vicinity of a dryline/weak surface low where temperatures are expected to warm into the low 90s. While a few storms may develop, significant inhibition/dry air entrainment will likely keep the threat for more robust/severe convection muted. ...Bentley.. 09/12/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .