Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 12 2024 14:58:06

AWUS01 KWNH 121458
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-122055-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0995
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1057 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Areas affected...northern MS into eastern AR and southwestern TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121455Z - 122055Z

SUMMARY...Bands of moderate to heavy rain associated with Tropical
Depression Francine will impact northern MS into eastern AR and
southwestern TN through 21Z. Rainfall rates peaking between 1 to 2
in/hr are likely to result in a few areas of flash flooding,
though dry antecedent conditions may limit the coverage of flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...14Z surface observations indicated the center of T.D.
Francine was near Jackson, MS, tracking NNE at 10 kt with a
similar track/speed anticipated into the afternoon according to
the latest NHC advisory. Satellite and radar imagery showed the
bulk of heavy rain was located north and northwest of the storm
system where low level convergence was supporting SW to NE
oriented bands of heavy rain beneath the divergent right entrance
region of an upper level outflow channel seen in satellite imagery
over the MS Valley. Precipitable water values were estimated to be
2.1 to 2.3 inches across north-central MS but MUCAPE was roughly
100 J/kg or less (via 14Z SPC mesoanalysis data). Despite the lack
of instability, however, rainfall rates have been peaking in the 1
to 1.5 in/hr range over the past 1-3 hours within the banding
northwest of Francine.

Francine will continue to track to the north through the afternoon
and while cloud cover is forecast to keep instability values below
500 J/kg through at least the mid-afternoon, convergent moist/low
level inflow will likely continue to support east-west or
northeast-southwest oriented bands of heavy rain within the
northern hemisphere of Francine's circulation. Within these bands,
rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 in/hr are likely but one cannot rule
out isolated rates near 2 in/hr. These bands of heavy rain will
impact northern MS into portions of eastern AR and southwestern
TN, including the Memphis metropolitan area.

While antecedent conditions are quite dry, areas of flash flooding
are considered likely where banding of heavy rain sets up over
urban or otherwise sensitive/low lying locations with additional
rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches expected through 21Z.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8qEOBJAu0oBJoSCFFMla9cvXRtlKmany3VQ8gnDmciXr0jqHn04EOg8wJBQNUI-TsXYo=
EgtXjDxjhg05b4Ql3RYflAM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35989006 35788878 34298822 33378836 32698876=20
            32518984 32679070 33109132 33699156 34279172=20
            35019200 35839155=20

=3D =3D =3D
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